The Truth About The Current State of The Stock Market

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51 Comments

  1. Agree with “the worst might yet to come”
    Disagree wit “not DCA yet” since for most people the best strategy is to pick superior companies and increase ownership in them over time. So DCA all the time…thats why its DCA
    I am buying every two weeks (PLTR that is)

    1. The stats on DCA winning are mostly focusing on Index investing rather than stock picking though I believe?

    2. Why would you sell in the red and invest in cash with high inflation? I’m going to do what I’ve done for the last three years: not sell a single Tesla share and buy as much as I can, whenever I can afford it. Whether a crash, a recession or whatever, I can’t think of a better place for my money than in Tesla stock. The company’s a beast.

  2. Fed is doing a pretty descent job of letting people know the interest increase so chances of Fed going too aggressive is unlikely thanks to many reasons you already covered. Obviously no one knows where the bottom is but it can’t be too far for even money making tech companies that lost 80% of their value.

    1. Fed just follows the two year bond yield which is raising as people would rather buy commodities than a negative real yield bond

  3. No Tom most people will not kow where the bottom is. That’s because in hindsight the bottom is always associated with peak fear,pain and skepticism. At which point people always think the markets going lower.

  4. Agreed. As much as those who were investing in high-tech and main stream media want you to believe this is the bottom. It’s not. It’s just getting started and as Tom alluded to, it could take a while to recover so buckle up.

  5. These types of videos are the best in my opinion. Short, concise, honest and factual.

    It won’t generate huge views Vs his Palantir videos etc but these are the ones that carry the most value.

  6. I always go back to the Amazon chart from early on in the business. If you just buy the best companies consistently over time even when the price crashes then you will eventually make huge returns on the rebound. Even if it takes years to get back to the peak, I have been buying all the dips so I will make more money in the end.

    What are the options: sell and take loss then reinvest or stay in and buy dips

  7. The rest of May will see huge surges in stock prices especially growth stocks. The weak hands have been flushed out …for the most part.
    Whenever the energy in the markets is mostly negative as it is now then be ready for a quick reversal. This has been the case after most crashes in the past Just a thought.

    1. @baum haus That is good more people like you keep thinking that, that means we are getting close to the bottom.

  8. One of the few times I disagree, but I still appreciate your POV. I think inflation will level off this month or next due to elevated comps, before eventually dropping off before EOY. (I’m with Justin on this one!)
    Less inflation=less hawkish fed=good for the market. But I’m just a nobody, and you were a professional in the field, so I may end up looking like a 🤡

    1. I wanted to point out that even though the market priced in Liquidation risk, it hasn’t priced in credit risk, and it hasn’t accounted for potential demand shock from increasing interest rates. If inflation is at 9% and the fed raises rates by 1.25 basis points by end of the year plus lower their balance sheet, it will only bring down inflation to about 4-5% which is far from the 2-3% we are used to. Plus the Fed has been so late in reacting and I don’t see a reason that they will time everything correctly. It’s a weird market, if I have a well diversified portfolio, I would hold some cash and shift to investing in companies that have a lot of liquidity

    2. The Fed reacts to historic info because that is all they have. So they will overshoot with the rate hikes. Count on it.

    3. You also didn’t account for everyday people not being able to afford daily living. Most people got raises this last year, yes. But not many got 5%+ raises. People are struggling everywhere. Go out of your way and talk to strangers. The economy isn’t doing well. A majority of them are struggling

  9. There’s rarely a bad time to buy – just bad times to sell. Unless, of course, you bought Enron.

    1. @Brian Baratheon well yes, rofl, there are stipulations. You all know what he means, so stop trying to contradict him.

    2. @M R not everyone has that kind of time to wait. He makes it seem like it’s always good to hold and wait, and that’s just not the case. There are millions of people for whom this crash will destroy because they can’t wait 15 to 20 years to wait to break even

    3. @Brian Baratheon I agree with you, but unfortunately if you didn’t get out around November, you’re only hope is to hold and hope this corrects sooner than later. Who knows to be completely honest.

    4. We could be entering a lost decade or two if we see stagflation. Worst case scenario for anyone near retirement to have a crash and then stagflation.

  10. Hey Tom, I’m in on Twitter for the arbitrage but hesitating on the Activision as there seems to be a much bigger risk that this won’t come off. What’s your thoughts on this?

  11. Tom, love your videos! Are you suggesting at the end though that everyone will know when the bottom is? As in people can time it perfectly? Or are you saying more that you think we will continue falling and when there is TRUE fear that people will know that’s when to buy, even if we fall a bit further afterwards? It sounded like you were suggesting the former, which is typically opposite of typical investing principles where you never try to time the bottom. Just curious! Have a good day man👍

    1. I think he was trying to emphasize that you will really feel the bottom with much more pain if/when it comes. It came out as literally knowing the bottom. But that is impossible since you can’t define a bottom unless you look backwards, some time after the bottom passed.

    2. I meant that it will be so bad that you wouldn’t need to wonder. I don’t think it can be times by anyone and I don’t suggest trying.

  12. I’m buying like crazy, quality companies on the cheap. I’ll be smiling in the future. I’ve got my prices, they trigger I buy.

  13. Great video Tom, but I disagree that we’ll know when the bottom hits. Most times, the bottom feels like much more pain ahead. The bottom can be early days in a recession too. Look at 2008… the bottom occurred mid-way through the recession. Just my 2 cents!

  14. The main point here is that in the past crashes there were really more serious issues the economy this reality is that the situation aside from some inflation and supply chain issues everything else is Manageable. So to me this is a dragged on deep correction and bear market that should get resolved as we get into the 2nd half and I reckon when the red wave comes in the midterms we’ll have a massive Santa Claus rally to either go flat for the year or up single % on all indices

  15. I dont really agree with your view Tom.

    I think the drops in the market have been fueled 100% by rate hikes. There are a lot of stocks that have ballooned to crazy valuations during the pandemic, and now that things are getting back to normal people are realizing they are overvalued and taking some profits. What is happening now is not a crash, but rather a “correction”…

    I really don’t see anything negative in the market or the economy.
    Inflation is caused due to supply chain issues since companies were short staffed, this caused huge bottle necks. Inflation is starting to stabilize at this point. I don’t think we needed the rate hikes.

    War in Ukraine i think will be done in a few weeks.

    I believe what will likely happen, is after Russia / Ukraine sign a piece deal, we will see a big rebound in the market.

    I think we will have a market crush, but i will bet money it will be caused by some crap from China. Those guys have been fudging numbers, i think their economy is hanging on the edge of a cliff right now.

    1. you might be 💯percent right! Look at all this permabull youtubers and their faiding euphoria.

    2. Man you really said something. China’s like the elephant in the room that no one’s talking about. Evergrande story died after a month and no more critical coverage of China’s economy as it’s too hard to navigate when CCP spouts bullshit data. I’ve been saying it before that I see good upside in the market still because the issues that we have are basically solved, you can see the solutions from a mile away. Market is usually forward looking so I think we’ll see the recovery sooner than later. However the rally probably won’t last for too long. I believe it’ll be a short pop before China comes crashing the market due to their economy being down the drain.

  16. What’s insane is there were politicians on both sides of the political spectrum warning us about this exact scenario.

  17. I agree Tim if one has to ask if the bottom is in yet then more is to come for that person. Markets are about patients, mindset, and due diligence of investments. That’s my 2 whole years experience in the markets and it does pay off to wait…wait…wait.

  18. I don’t think we will know when it is the bottom. Usually at the bottom the overwhelming majority think it’s about to get WAY worse. Hence the climax fear at the bottom.

  19. The way I see it:
    * This sucks in the short term
    * But in 5-10 years it won’t matter
    * The most important thing is to have cash on hand for emergencies, some more cash to invest, then DCA as often as you can
    * And of course, do whatever you can to stay employed or over-employed so you’ll have more money to invest.

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