To no surprise, NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) just reported revenue and guidance that was as predictable as the Sun rising over the eastern horizon every morning. The company has had a predictable pattern of increasing guidance by $4 billion per quarter for the past five quarters and beating the provided guidance by $2 billion. This trend started some quarters ago, and to no surprise, it happened again yesterday.

The Rule of 4 and 2

Nvidia may have “beat” the Q2 consensus of $28.9 billion, which is not much of a surprise to anyone who saw the pattern prior. The guidance was also not surprising, considering the street was already just around $32 billion. If this pattern persists, analysts will probably need to raise their estimates for the fiscal third quarter of 2025 to something closer to $34.5 billion.

The cadence of the beats and raises is striking, especially considering the number we are referring to: billions of dollars. It was so easy to see that yesterday, in a note written in our IG service Reading The Markets, it was written:

Over the past four quarters, Nvidia has established a pattern of guiding revenue estimates higher and then surpassing them by $2 billion. For example, the company guided last quarter to $24 billion, with the street estimating $24.7 billion, and Nvidia reported $26 billion. Based on the pattern of the past four quarters, the company guided this quarter to $28 billion, which implies the company reports $30 billion.

Another consistent trend has been Nvidia raising its guidance by $4 billion each quarter. If this continues, the company could guide for $32 billion for next quarter, a figure the market is already anticipating. This suggests that both the revenue surprise and the guidance increase might be in line with expectations, reducing the element of surprise in Nvidia’s earnings report.

Hard To Surprise

But really, this creates an environment for the stock that makes it difficult to surprise, which is part of why the stock is trading lower following the results. The other part, as noted previously, is that the market was incredibly bullish on the name, and the implied volatility levels reached some really high levels. Those implied volatility levels are melting lower today, and the calls above $125 are losing value, creating market hedging flows that are suppressing the stock.

However, one problem may arrive next week because the gamma levels supporting the stock at $120 this week will decline dramatically. Therefore, it may be much easier for the stock to break the $120 level next week and head lower than it is likely to break it this week.

Furthermore, according to FINRA, short sale volume has accounted for about a third of the overall trading volume in Nvidia in the past two weeks. In fact, yesterday, that volume hit 141 million shares and was steadily trending higher starting around August 15. It is likely that many of those traders shorting the stock in the $130 range are now buying back their short positions and potentially helping to create a bid in the shares.

Too Expensive For Future Growth

Ultimately, this company is past peak growth, with a revenue growth rate expected to decline materially over the coming quarters. Given its predictable nature of guiding up by $4 billion from the previous quarter and beating by $2 billion, it apparently has no ability to surprise the market any longer.

One must wonder if this stock is worth paying almost times 20 its NTM forward sales estimates at this point of the game, with peak growth now behind and growth only slowing going forward. The real risk, of course, is the quarter that the cycle of 4 and 2 breaks. This is because when it breaks, given the law of large numbers, it likely breaks to the downside, and that will come as a surprise to the market and not in a good way.

It has undoubtedly become a critical stock to the entire market – a little too important, given how nervous the market seemed ahead of its results.

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