Key Takeaways
- Crude oil futures reversed violently after a climactic rally.
- Market indices and tech leaders successfully defended long-term technical support.
- Excessive market fear suggests a vicious market rally is imminent.
Monday, stocks stormed higher amid growing optimism about the Iranian Geopolitical conflict. Sunday night, the market picture looked less clear, with the major index futures each falling more than 1%. However, after a blood-red open, the bulls took control, as the major indices each finished the session up more than a percent on heavy turnover. For instance, the Nasdaq 100 Index ETF ((QQQ – Free Report) ) registered volume 54% above the norm, signaling heavy accumulation.
Below are five reasons stocks may have just bottomed:
1. Geopolitical Tensions are Cooling: Typically, geopolitical conflicts such as wars result in sharp, immediate, but short-lived price shocks in equity markets (with an average recovery period of 39 days). Monday, stocks suggested that would be the case after President Trump suggested that the war with Iran would be a “short-term” excursion.
2. Oil Reverses Violently: The calming rhetoric from President Trump finally helped bottle up oil prices. After ripping to $120 per barrel, U.S. crude oil futures reversed violently and closed below $90. Meanwhile, volume turnover on the United States Oil Fund ETF ((USO – Free Report) ) reversed after reaching the 261.8% fib extension target as volume soared to 1,136% above the 50-day average. Such high volume, violent reversals after climactic moves often coincide with intermediate tops – a bullish sign for equities.
Image Source: TradingView
3. Stocks Tend to Bottom in Mid-March: Over the past two decades, stocks have bottomed in Mid-March more than any other time of year. Is history repeating itself again in 2026?
Image Source: Carson Investment Research
4. Tech Stocks Find Support at the 200-day Moving Average: QQQ retreated to the 200-day moving average for the first time since retaking the long-term trend indicator following last year’s ‘Liberation Day’ bear market.
Image Source: TradingView
Several leading tech stocks such as IREN ((IREN – Free Report) ), NVIDIA ((NVDA – Free Report) ), and Broadcom ((AVGO – Free Report) ) also saw market bulls step in and defend the long-term moving average.
5. Investors are Fearful: According to the CNN Fear & Greed Index, investor fear levels have reached the highest levels of 2026. Typically, extreme bearish sentiment acts as a valuable contrarian indicator for stocks.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Bottom Line
While the Sunday night futures suggested a looming disaster, Monday’s price action proved that the market’s appetite for risk has returned with vengeance. With seasonal tailwinds, cooling geopolitical tensions, and the successful defense of long-term technical levels, the evidence suggests that the path of least resistance has once again tilted to the upside.
