Rivian Automotive (RIVN 4.29%) stock is ending the week on a winning streak. Shares of the electric vehicle (EV) maker surged 6.6% higher on Thursday, and as of 1:10 p.m. ET Friday, the stock was up by a further 4.5%.

Some of that upward momentum comes from speculation that the U.S. government might be making a large EV purchase. But Rivian investors are also focused on the quarterly report coming from the company next week.

2025 will be a pivotal year for Rivian

One catalyst for the stock’s gains this week came after reports surfaced Thursday about a potential $400 million purchase of armored electric vehicles by the U.S. State Department. While that purchase has reportedly been in the planning stages since early last year, indications that Tesla Cybertrucks were the focus of that transaction brought the story to the forefront again Thursday.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has been tasked by President Trump to lead an effort to cut government spending. That has some voicing concerns about conflicts of interest. Thursday’s reports said that the planned armored EV purchases have been put on hold. That generated some speculation that Rivian could potentially wind up booking a large sale to the U.S. government.

But it’s also possible that government spending cuts could put the EV purchases on hold for good. More important for Rivian investors is what the company will share with investors on Feb. 20 when it delivers its fourth-quarter report.

Analysts expect to hear that its revenue grew by about 8.5% year over year. But it’s what Rivian says about its outlook for 2025 that will determine how the stock moves. Production of its next-generation R2 SUVs will start this year, with deliveries beginning in 2026.

When considering the Q4 release, investors should focus on initial consumer interest in the R2 vehicle, the company’s liquidity position, and its cost-reduction efforts. If those metrics are trending in the right direction, expect more gains for Rivian stock.