Note: The following is an excerpt from this week’s Earnings Trends report. You can access the full report that contains detailed historical actual and estimates for the current and following periods, please click here>>>
Here are the key points:
- For 2025 Q4, total S&P 500 earnings are currently expected to be up +6.9% from the same period last year on +7.7% higher revenues. This would follow +13.9% earnings growth in 2025 Q3 on +7.8% revenue growth.
- The Tech sector has been a key growth driver since 2023, and the sector is on track to be playing that role in 2025 Q4 and beyond as well. Q4 earnings growth drops to +3.6% from +6.9% once the Tech sector’s enormous contribution is removed from the aggregate numbers. The Tech sector is currently expected to account for almost half of S&P 500 earnings growth in 2026.
- The revisions trend for 2025 Q4 turned modestly negative in recent weeks, after staying positive earlier in the period. The revisions trend was consistently positive in the comparable period of the preceding quarter (2025 Q3).
- Q4 earnings for the ‘Magnificent 7’ group of companies are expected to be up +16.6% from the same period last year on +16.2% higher revenues. Excluding the ‘Mag 7’ contribution, Q4 earnings for the rest of the index would be up only +3.4% (vs. +6.9%).
Tech Driving Earnings Growth
The Tech sector has been driving aggregate earnings growth since 2023 Q3, and the trend is expected to continue in 2025 Q4 and beyond. For Q4, Tech sector earnings are expected to be up +13% from the same period last year on +15.8% higher revenues, the 10th quarter in a row of double-digit earnings growth.
This would follow the sector’s +22.6% earnings growth on +12.6% higher revenues in 2025 Q3. But as the chart below shows, the sector’s growth trajectory is expected to continue in the coming quarters.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
In addition to the Tech sector’s strong growth profile, the sector is also among the few sectors whose earnings outlook is steadily improving. This shows up in the revisions trend that continues to remain positive for the Tech sector, both for Q4 as well as for full year 2026.
For calendar year 2026, the Zacks Tech sector is currently expected to enjoy +17.4% earnings growth on +13.8% revenue growth, which would follow the sector’s expected +19.2% earnings growth on +13.8% higher revenues.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Tech sector has not only been the largest contributor to aggregate earnings growth, but it has also been enjoying persistent positive estimate revisions, a trend that continues for 2026. The chart below shows the evolution of aggregate 2026 Tech sector earnings estimates since the start of July 2025.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Earnings Big Picture
The chart below shows expectations for 2025 Q4 in terms of what was achieved in the preceding four periods and what is currently expected for the next three quarters.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The chart below shows the overall earnings picture for the S&P 500 index on an annual basis.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Tech sector has an outsized role in the S&P 500 index. The sector is expected to bring 35.6% of the index’s total earnings over the coming four-quarter period and currently accounts for 44.6% of the index’s total market capitalization. The Tech sector’s positive estimate revision trend is a major reason its members, such as NVIDIA (NVDA – Free Report) and Microsoft (MSFT – Free Report) , enjoy a strong market following and support.
