It’s been only a few days since the United States Supreme Court struck down most of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs. But businesses and lawmakers are already racing to figure out what happens next.
Some in Congress are weighing potential legislation. Importers are exploring lawsuits. And amid the uncertainty, a key question looms: Will any of the tariff money be returned, and if so, to whom?
This is important since millions of U.S. households have paid higher prices since Trump enacted broad tariffs, as many companies passed along the cost of the levies.
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Recent reports estimate that 80% to 90% of the costs of tariffs were borne by American consumers. The levies added roughly $1,000 to $1,500 per household each year to the cost of everyday goods, ranging from appliances and electronics to clothing.
Now that the High Court has declared the tariffs unlawful, the battle over whether tariff refunds are on the way and how they would work has begun. Will you get any money? Here’s more of what you need to know.
IEEPA tariff refund rights uncertain after Supreme Court ruling
Yes, as you’ve probably heard, importers are the ones who technically pay tariffs. Economically, though, data suggest much of the tariff cost burden has landed on American households and U.S. businesses.
- In a February New York Fed tariff study, researchers found that roughly 90% of the cost of the tariffs was borne by U.S. consumers and importers, rather than by foreign exporters.
- The analysis, which has been criticized by Trump administration officials, reinforces earlier academic findings that American households absorbed the vast majority of tariff-related price increases, particularly in categories like electronics, household goods, auto parts, and clothing.
That’s why some members of Congress argue that refunds, if any, should go not only to the companies that paid the tariffs, but also to U.S. consumers.
How much money are we talking about? According to a Penn Wharton model, more than $175 billion in tariff revenue has been collected since Trump’s sweeping tariff program began in 2025. Now, some of that vast sum has been found to have been unlawfully collected by the Court.
Rough calculations by some lawmakers suggest that if tariff refunds were distributed broadly, households could see around $1,300. That figure aligns closely with an often-cited Tax Foundation estimate of the tariffs’ annual costs to families.
What the Supreme Court ruling didn’t do
The 6–3 Supreme Court ruling made clear that the president overstepped his tariff authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
But SCOTUS stopped short of ordering repayment. In dissent, Justice Brett Kavanaugh emphasized that the Court “says nothing today about whether, and if so how, the Government should go about returning the billions of dollars it has collected.”
Kavanaugh added, “The United States may be required to refund billions of dollars to importers who paid the IEEPA tariffs, even though some importers may have already passed on costs to consumers or others.”
That echoes concerns Justice Amy Coney Barrett raised during oral arguments last November. At that time, Barrett described any tariff refund process as a potential “mess” — a view later expressed by Kavanaugh in dissent from the majority’s Feb 20 opinion.
How would tariff refunds work?
This week, Senate Finance Committee Ranking Member Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), with Sens. Edward Markey (D-Mass.) and Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), announced legislation that would require the federal government to refund tariff revenue collected under IEEPA within 180 days, with interest.
If approved, The Tariff Refund Act of 2026 would prioritize small businesses and encourage larger importers to pass savings to consumers.
In a release regarding the bill, which is co-sponsored by 19 other senators, Wyden said, “The Court affirmed Congress’s role over tariffs, and now we must ensure families and small businesses are made whole.”
“Trump’s illegal tariff taxes cost small businesses, consumers, and families up to $175 billion. That money must be repaid immediately, Sen. Markey said in a statement, adding, “For small businesses with little to no resources, this refund process can be extremely difficult and time-consuming.”
Worth noting: Complementary legislation has been proposed in the U.S. House of Representatives.
- Reps. Steven Horsford (D-Nev.) and Janelle Bynum (D-Ore.) introduced the Restoring Economic Lifelines for Independent Enterprises and Family Businesses (RELIEF) Act.
- The bill would require U.S. Customs and Border Protection to automatically refund tariffs and customs duties collected under IEEPA since January 1, 2025.
- According to its sponsors, it would also “eliminate the need for individual applications or formal protests.”
In a release regarding the proposal, Bynum said, “This bill will make our small businesses whole by refunding their needlessly high tariffs. It’s past time this Administration starts putting the American people first.”
Horsford added, “When the government takes money without proper authority, it doesn’t get to keep it. These blanket tariffs drove up prices, squeezed small businesses, and made everyday life more expensive for working people. The Supreme Court has now made clear the law used to impose them did not authorize that action. It’s time to return the money and begin repairing the damage caused by this reckless trade policy.”
What about Trump’s $2,000 ‘Tariff Dividend’?
With all of this tariff refund chatter, you might recall that President Trump once floated $2,000 “tariff dividend” checks that would be funded by expected tariff revenue.
- The notion of tariff dividends was considered more of a political proposal.
- Refunds, on the other hand, are seen by some as a remedy to return money collected under a law the Court invalidated.
Still, lawmakers will have to address and agree on major questions to craft any practical remedy, including who gets the money, how much, and how it is distributed.
Additionally, it’s important to note that many tariffs remain in place, primarily targeting steel, aluminum, semiconductors, and autos. Trump has also pledged to impose 15% global tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.
FedEx sues Trump and what it means for you in 2026
While it seems some in Congress believe refunds are important in this situation, what’s still unknown is whether all the developments now will translate into cash in your wallet anytime soon. Or whether the tariff refund “mess” will instead take years to untangle and focus primarily on companies rather than consumers.
In a Fox News interview, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly said of potential tariff refunds: “This could take years to litigate and get to a payout.”
- Some reports put the number of companies with protective refund lawsuits already filed at at least 1,000, though that number is expected to grow.
- As Kiplinger reported, Costco filed a lawsuit over the tariffs in the U.S. Court of International Trade last year.
- And FedEx is the first major company to file suit against the Trump administration and U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) following the Supreme Court’s decision. In its complaint, filed February 23 in New York, FedEx is seeking a “full refund” of the tariffs it paid under the now-invalidated emergency tariff regime.
In a statement posted on its website, FedEx notes, “While the Supreme Court did not address the issue of refunds, FedEx has taken necessary action to protect the company’s rights as an importer of record to seek duty refunds from U.S. Customs and Border Protection.”
So, stay tuned. And in the meantime, speaking of refunds…
Several states are sending various forms of special payments and tax rebates to their residents this year, and regular federal income tax refunds, previously projected by House GOP lawmakers to be historically high, are averaging around $2,500 as of early February.
