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President Donald Trump backed down from a deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz ahead of the opening bell on Monday, citing substantive negotiations in a Truth Social post. Equity index futures immediately bounced while crude oil prices corrected, as investors, traders and speculators reacted to the most recent twist in the war between the U.S., Israel and the Islamic Republic.
“I am pleased to report that the United States of America, and the country of Iran, have had, over the last two days, very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East,” the president posted on his social media account at 7:23 am Eastern Daylight Time.
Citing the “tenor and tone” of “in depth, detailed, and constructive conversations,” Trump has instructed the Department of Defense to postpone attacks on Iran’s power plans and energy infrastructure for five days “subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions.”
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Trump later conceded he hasn’t been in contact with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and is “dealing with a man who I believe is the most respected and the leader,” according to The Hill.
The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract traded as high as $101.67 per barrel vs $98.32 on Friday but fell 14.2% to as low as $84.37 after the president’s post and settled at $88.77.
Crude oil prices are still elevated: WTI is up more than 32.5% since February 27 and 28.4% year over year, and Brent crude, the benchmark for Europe, is up 37.8% since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran and 36.9% over the trailing 12 months.
Goldman Sachs analyst Daan Struyven, in a note published before the president’s Truth Social post, updated his crude oil forecasts for 2026. The analyst now sees Brent crude at $85, up from an average of $77, and WTI at $79, up from $72.
“Due to the uncertainty around the duration of the shock and assuming that Hormuz flows remain at 5% through April 10,” Struyven says, “prices are likely to trend higher over that period until the market gains confidence that a lengthy disruption is unlikely.”
‘TACO Trade’ rally or oversold bounce?
By the closing bell, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average had added 1.4% to 46,208, the broad-based S&P 500 was up 1.2% at 6,581, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had rallied 1.4% to 21,946.
The Russell 2000 went into “correction” territory on Friday when it fell 10% from its most recent high, but the index of small-cap stocks was up 2.6% on Monday.
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“The S&P 500 has been down four weeks in a row, and six of the last 12 weeks,” Barry Ritholtz of Ritholtz Wealth Management writes. “As of Friday, we were off approximately 6.8% from recent highs, with the Nasdaq off approximately 8.2%.”
Ritholtz, noting a recent phenomenon (“Trump always chickens out”) observed up and down Wall Street, has a more basic explanation for what happened today: “This looks less a case of TACO, and more of a case of an oversold market wildly overdue for [a] bounce.”
Apogee is peaking again
Apogee Therapeutics (APGE, 20.0%) added more than $1 billion to its market cap after management released positive Phase 2 trial data for zumilokibart, which treats inflammation for patients with atopic dermatitis.
Apogee (which means “highest point”) is one of those high-risk, high-reward clinical-stage stocks that do-it-yourself investors can get exposure to through biotech ETFs.
APGE soared to a 52-week high of $84.56 in mid-January on optimism about its pipeline, but sold off sharply through the winter amid insider selling and broader market uncertainty. It closed at $79.24 on Monday.
Wedbush analyst David Nierengarten reiterated his Outperform (Buy) rating and raised his 12-month target price from $95 to $120 following the release of the new data, noting that “zumi” met his “best case” scenario and will begin Phase 3 trials in the second half of the year.
“With zumilokibart now clinically validated, a strong cash position, and upside potential from combinations and expansion indications,” Nierengarten writes, “we would be buyers ahead of further clinical and development catalysts this year.”
What in the world is Berkshire buying now?
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B, -0.2%) is taking a 2.5% equity stake in Japan-based property and casualty insurer Tokio Marine Holdings (TKOMY, +13.9%) through its reinsurance subsidiary National Indemnity – a combination of old-school financial stocks that could lead to even more mergers and acquisitions.
According to a statement about the deal released by Tokio Marine (pdf), “The two companies will collaborate on global strategic investment opportunities, including M&A, executing joint investments to drive sustained business expansion.”
The move indicates that new Berkshire CEO Greg Abel, who replaced Buffett in January, intends to sustain and extend the chairman’s methods for running a long-term investment portfolio.
Indeed, exposure to Japan via stakes in five “sogo shosha” (trading houses) initiated in July 2019 ranks among Warren Buffett’s best investments.
