US Stock Market Trends + Macro Outlook (2023)

Potential market trends for 2023 – from earnings compression to Fed Pivot, AI as the next bubble and the oil market bull run. 🔴 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗜𝗕𝗞𝗥 ➡️

🔴 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗜𝗕𝗞𝗥 ➡️

🟠 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗺𝗼𝗼𝗺𝗼𝗼 ➡️

⬇️ Timestamps:
0:00 → Introduction
0:45 → Earnings Compression
3:29 → Fed Pivot
6:30 → Artificial Intelligence – The Next Bubble
8:31 → Oil Market Bull Run
10:41 → Summary of Key Things to Look Out For
12:16 → Analysts’ S&P500 Outlook (2023)

Earlier in Dec 2022, J.P.Morgan cut its 2023 earnings forecast for S&P 500 companies, citing weaker demand and pricing power, margin compression, and limited buy-backs. JPM strategists now estimate S&P 500 earnings per share for 2023 to be $205, down 9% from an earlier forecast of $225.

On the other hand, the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates to as high as 5.1% in 2023 before the central bank ends its fight against runaway inflation, according to its median forecast released on 14 Dec 2022. The expected “terminal rate” of 5.1% is equivalent to a target range of 5%-5.25%. The series of rate hikes is expected to slow down the economy.

A recently published report has suggested that the Artificial Intelligence (AI) bubble is due to burst after several years of sustained hype has generated unrealistic expectations that cannot be met and excessive investments that cannot possibly be paid back. According to Riot Research, the AI market will only reach $39 billion globally by 2023, considerably less than previous estimates.

Oil prices might be down, but several catalysts could push crude higher in 2023. Oil prices rallied from less than $80 a barrel to more than $125 a barrel following Russia's invasion of Ukraine earlier in 2022. That more than 20% plunge in crude oil prices means oil is in a bear market. However, a new bull market for oil looks to be coming next year.

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market outlook
federal reserve
stock market
economy 2023
earnings compression
rate hikes
interest rates
recession
inverted yield curve
fed pivot
inflation
bond market
labour market
unemployment rate
artificial intelligence
oil market
world news
economy
investing
s&p 500
US economy

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27 thoughts on “US Stock Market Trends + Macro Outlook (2023)

  1. 🔴 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗜𝗕𝗞𝗥 ➡ https://www.interactivebrokers.com/mkt/?src=zietPY1&url=%2Fen%2Findex.php%3Ff%3D1338

    🟠 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗺𝗼𝗼𝗺𝗼𝗼 ➡ https://j.moomoo.com/00kT1U

  2. could you make a video on how you would invest 100k in 2023, chatGPT what stocks does this cover ive got sofi , meta and 2 other also what stocks would you recommend from china

  3. Does chatGPT scour the internet to provide an answer?

    No, ChatGPT is a large language model that was trained on a dataset of human-generated text. It does not have access to the internet and cannot browse or search the web. Instead, it uses the patterns and structures it learned during training to generate text based on the prompts it receives. ChatGPT is able to produce responses to a wide range of topics, but its knowledge is limited to the information it was trained on, and it may not always provide accurate or up-to-date information.

    p/s: response provided by chatGPT 🤣

    1. The data would be fed into it from internet in the first place, and they could be trained/preset to answer that to avoid any copyright claim liability 🤭

  4. Hello… What do you think about S&P Global (SPGI) since it is the company of s&p global or ICE (company of nasdaq index)? Thanks.

  5. Is Fed pivot aka lowering fed fund rate equivalent to quantitative easing?

    No, a “Fed pivot” or “lowering the federal funds rate” refers to a monetary policy tool used by the Fed to adjust the supply of money in the economy. The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which banks lend overnight funds to each other. By lowering the federal funds rate, the Fed aims to stimulate economic activity by making it cheaper for businesses and households to borrow money.

    Quantitative easing (QE) is a different monetary policy tool that the Fed can use to increase the supply of money in the economy. QE involves the Fed purchasing securities, such as Treasury bonds or mortgage-backed securities, from banks in order to increase the banks’ reserve balances and enable them to lend more. QE is typically used when short-term interest rates (like the federal funds rate) are already near zero and cannot be lowered further.

    Again response provided by ChatGPT ✌

    1. Robot is right! They are not the same thing, but in my knowledge they usually come hand in hand or shortly after

  6. Thank you for yr thought. Here’s a question for IBKR, is it possible to open a 2nd account? My calculations might be wrong, but it seems instead of averaging down in one account, it seems holding stock on 2 accounts, one with a higher stock price, and another much lower would produce higher yield. Other than that, might be a bit safer to withdraw from an account with a lower stock prices, if there is need for cash. Looking forward to your thoughts on this, and if its even possible

    1. Hi Darren, not sure how that calculations is done but why so? Your weighted average cost is still the same regardless of how many accounts you hold them

    2. Yes it’s possible to open multiple accounts with IBKR. You’ll have to apply for a 2nd account and perhaps describe why you want more than 1 account, but you won’t have to send the same documentation for the 2nd acct. if you’ve already opened the 1st account.

    3. Thank you Ziet and Chris for the feedback. Here is kind of my logic for this(example rough calculation below). Also just incase I would need funds in the near future, I can dip into the account that has no or less of a loss.

      Eg : Bought Tesla in 2022 at $200, and lets say it goes up back to $200 in 2024(to make calculations easier)
      If bought again in 2023 in the same account at $100, the same dollar account. My average would be $150. In 2024 my profit would be $50 in total
      If bought again in 2023 in a different account at $100 , the same dollar amount. In 2024 my profit would be $100. While the older account makes no profit

    4. @Darren Your example makes sense, but I think it depends a lot on being able to pick bottoms. No one knows the bottom, so usually it’s too much trouble to try to pick the bottom, and better to just DCA in 1 account for long-term investing.

      Using one account for trading and one for long-term investing might be a way to squeeze out some more profit.

    5. @Chris Gordyn much appreciated. Tesla and other stocks are a long way down from its peak. If the math checks out. Would be to my best interest to open a second account if i’m planning to lump sum in, even if just for investing long term(not planning to do any short term trades). I’m a new investor, I might not fully understand ‘Averaging Down’. Maybe @Ziet might make a video

  7. “Success is … knowing your purpose in life, growing to reach your maximum potential, and sowing seeds that benefit others.” —John C. Maxwell

  8. Great start and this is really insightful. I think more buying opportunities awaiting in this year and we go with DCA 🥂

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